Don’t make the same mistake with China

If oil security, geographic containment, diplomatic confinement and racism let Japan to strike Pearl Harbor. Than don’t let the samething happen to China.

After watching a presentation on Japans involvement in the Pacific War of Second World War, homemade by a formal member of the Japanese Self-Defense Force. I saw a parallel in today’s East Asian politics. This time around, it’s the Chinese in the hot sit.


Viable strategy or not American alliance in Asia is increasingly looking like old fashion containment on the PRC. Span across East Asia with bilateral alliance with Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Australia, India, Singapore (US has permission to use ports) and technically New Zealand. If this is not enough US’s current base building activity in central Asia will surely make the Chinese nervures (See chart below: U.S. Deployments). Adding de facto US-Taiwan alliance, well you get the picture.


China Alienation

Geographic containment is really not that bad, because there is hardly any country in the world is that is surrounded by American bases or alliances, as long as the surrounded ones do not feel threatens by America. To bad, there is just enough China bashers in US and Japan to make things worst by declare China a security threat, causing a scene when China wants to buy IBM’s notebook division and blocking Chinese purchase of Unocal a smalltime oil company.

Japanese Right Wing extremist a group of potential self-fulfilling prophets, exacerbate Chinese alienations by spreading China alarmist views on powerful mediums such as the Internet and comics(Kobayashi Yoshinori). I have read comments that go as far as calling an East Asian war inevitable.

Not that bad for now
” あほ!”or idiots in english was the response I had from a sensible Japanese friend about the China alarmist. I guess things is not that bad, after all, time has changed lesson was learned. China is having now more diplomatic space and respect than prewar Japan, some even argue Chinese are exercising greater diplomatic leverage than what its current power can supports. American and Japanese businesses in China reinsure China that it is not in the interest of Tokyou or Washinton to hinder smooth flow of oil. And China’s west is a backdoor that leads to Middle Eastern oil. Existence of non-American aliened oil producers’ countries like Iran and Sudan gives China some room to breathe.

For the time being the dual strategy of kindly facilitate China’s transition into the established world order and carefully monitor its development with soft containment is an appropriate strategy. Needlessly cornering China is not.



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