Prices on Intrade the prediction market still suggest that Obama has 75% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, while Hilary has about 23%.
Although, its still really far away, market prices are telling us Obama has 47% chance of winning the white house in November follow by McCain at 37% and Clinton at 14%.
So despite Obamas loses last Tuesday, he is still the odds on favor to win.
Slates’ got a nice article on political gambling, read.
News Futures is another market for predictions, check it out.
Bill and Hilary Clintons’ call for the dream ticket with Hilary as president and Obama as veep is their way of telling Democratic power brokers that the only way to avoid having the primary fight continue all the way to the convention in Denver is to accept Clintons’ version of the dream ticket. In short, give Hilary the nomination or see the Democratic Party implode by the prolong and brutal primary.
Is this view too cynical?
Its hard not to be, When Hilary is offering the second place to Obama who is leading in popular vote, delegate and stats won; Hilary has suggested numerous time that Obama does not have the competence to be the commander in chief but will give the veep slot to Obama? that’s a contradiction; When asked, Hilary refuse to specular if she will accept the veep slot if Obama won the nomination, saying it would be presumptuous to specular.
Yes, its hard not to be cynical of Hilarys’ dream ticket.
UPDATE: More on Clintons’ cynicism; Bill Clinton went on Rush Limbaugh on the day of the Texas primary, to gather Republicn vote (who want to see Democrats destroy each other) for Hilary perhaps.
I want Hillary to stay in this, Laura. This is too good a soap opera. We need Barack Obama bloodied up politically, and it’s obvious that the Republicans are not going to do it and don’t have the stomach for it, as you probably know. We’re getting all kinds of memos from the RNC, saying we’re not going to be critical there. Mark McKinnon of McCain’s campaign says he’ll quit if they get critical over Obama. This is the presidency of the United States we’re talking about. I want our party to win. I want the Democrats to lose. They’re in the midst of tearing themselves apart right now. It is fascinating to watch, and it’s all going to stop if Hillary loses. So, yeah, I’m asking people to cross over and, if they can stomach it — I know it’s a difficult thing to do, to vote for a Clinton, but it will sustain this soap opera, and it’s something I think we need. It would be fun, too.
UPDATE: Obama hits back
UPDATE: Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson explains away the obvious contradiction between accusation of not competent enough to commander in chief and Obama as veep contradiction by stating:
We do not believe that Senator Obama has passed the commander in chief test. But there is a long way between now and Denver.
Echo